QUICK NOTES ON THE PALIN PERORATION:

Missed most of the speech last night as I was dragging my decrepit carcass up and down the hardwood in the inaugural game of our autumnal hoops session, but, upon staggering back to the lair after post-hoop beers, I caught most of it on TiVo,

In a word: Wow.

That GILF is a pit bull with lipstick. Not to mention aplomb, beauty and--most dangerous of all--likability. She also-and this is not to be underestimated in our culture of deep human values-- has a very good-looking family. Even the little Down's Syndrome baby was the cutest Down's Syndrome baby you'll ever see. Look for her to win the Special Olympics beauty pageant or something...and help her mom win the special needs vote in a landslide. In fact, this will be the first time the Republicans will appeal equally to special needs families and special interest groups.

She spoke in the kind of un-rushed, poised, truly communicative manner that I felt was missing from, say, Gore's delivery. And there was a scary little crazy gleam in her eye that reminded me of McCain.

Make no mistake: The Democrats have a real challenge here--as they cannot reciprocate the kind of smilingly below the belt character eviscerations that she was delivering without falling into the trap of perceived sexism and condescension. This is an asymmetry that is not to be underestimated and that really works in the Republicans' favor. The VP debate will be huge and Biden will have to be extremely disciplined to stay on message about change (not about experience) and to keep the attack on McCain, not Palin.

All of this said: While she certainly fired up the family values small-town, big-business, anti-abortion, pro-gun control, pro-death penalty, pro-fessional wrestling base, I am not sure she was very persuasive to independent women voters. I trust that they will think that, yes, she was very impressive in a certain way and a credit to the competence of women everywhere, but also very alien and negative and scary as well. Critically. the Republican convention has simply been a litany of attacks and a celebration of McCain's biography (which, I guess, is supposed to read as character). Ironically, for a campaign that has consistently mocked Obama for big empty promises, they have not put forth a single concrete policy proposal.

I see a there's a bump for McCain on intrade this morning (up from 38% to 42% likely to win.)

Overall: I'm not too worried. But we are facing a pretty formidable, nasty adversary and we can't be smug. Time to fight back. Hard. But smart.